Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Haven Games Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 10.8% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +5.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 64.4% | +9.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Wind Cats | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Sink into Oblivion, Rippleback Terrapin. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Revitalizing Cleanse, Cerulean Decree.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sink into Oblivion | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |